tailwinds of a remarkable year and handsome investor returns, Indian equities are set for an eventful journey in 2024, with a slew of local and global cues -- varying from interest rates to Lok Sabha polls to geopolitical happenings. Analysts are of the view that the bull run in the domestic equity market will continue, and over the next 3-6 months, the benchmark indices -- Sensex and Nifty -- could climb up to 7 per cent. In 2023, the 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 11,399.52 points or 18.73 per cent, and the NSE Nifty climbed 3,626.1 points or 20 per cent.
'Das is friendly, but he finally does what he does. The quality of engagement is very good.'
If the concerns over risking political capital are overcome, the long-term gains for the Indian economy will be immense, asserts A K Bhattacharya.
'Continue with your SIPs to get the benefit of lower average prices in this challenging market environment.'
The comment was in response to a June 19 Reuters story citing sources with knowledge of the matter as saying that India planned to clear some oil payments to Iran through the United Arab Emirates central bank.
While the economy seems to be on a firm growth path, the fight against inflation is not over yet. Shaktikanta Das seems to be in no hurry. After playing well through a five-year Test match, he doesn't want to get out hit wicket, observes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The Indian economy recovered from the Covid-induced downturn during 2022 and is poised for further improvement in the coming quarters though downside risks emanating from geopolitical tensions, strengthening dollar and elevated inflation will continue. The positive trajectory in the growth trend and improved fundamentals will help the nation in neutralising the impact of global headwinds which are expected to have a bearing on the country's exports in the months to come. The challenges before the government and the Reserve Bank in the new year would be to arrest inflation, check declining value of rupee against US dollar and promote private investment and growth, with a view to ensure that the country remains one the fastest growing major economies of the world.
There are already some signs of stress in this market.
Elevated food price-led inflation could become a sore point for markets, which they seem to be ignoring at current levels, observe analysts. Retail inflation in India - as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) - came in at a three-month high of 6.52 per cent in January 2023, compared with 5.72 per cent in December and 5.88 per cent in November 2022. The inflation print for February, according to Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda, will be critical for the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy committee.
Strong dollar will impact financial system in India.
'Mumbai main branch (SBI headquarter) has all the data ready-made. It doesn't take even an hour to out the data from the system.'
When the Centre tries to encroach upon the subjects that are under the prerogative of the state, or where the centre tries to evade from any responsibility guaranteed to a state through a constitutional provision/obligation, it poses a threat to federalism.
Investors globally pulled out more than $3 billion from equity funds focused on Emerging markets including India in a week amid concerns over the US Federal Reserve's plan of curtailing its stimulus drive starting later this year.
Waves of foreign portfolio investments worth over Rs 51,000 crore splashed into the Indian market in 2021 as overseas investors turned net buyers of domestic securities for the third straight year while excess global liquidity and other factors steered the ebb and flow of their investing ways. With the global financial system still flush with liquidity, emerging market assets, especially equities, might well remain the preferred investment avenue for many more months to come, experts opined. As the equities sizzled during most of 2021, that also saw economy slowly coming back into the recovery path, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) turned net buyers but their investment is much less compared to net inflows of Rs 1.03 lakh crore in 2020.
IPO market hopes to come out of slump in festive season, reports Sundar Sethuraman.
If global stagflation takes hold, it will force China to accelerate its reforms to float its currency and create a single, independent and market-based financial system. When that happens, the dollar will collapse.
Despite markets turning volatile, share sale activity at India Inc has surged to its highest level in five months. So far in March, promoters, strategic investors and other large shareholders have been able to offload shares worth more than Rs 33,000 crore-the most since November-defying uncertain market conditions. Both the Sensex and the Nifty are on course to post their fourth straight monthly loss amid headwinds, such as interest rate tightening by the US Federal Reserve and the global banking crisis.
'We have a plan to plough back a 'This year in the first half we had profits of more than Rs 31,000 crore.' significant amount of profits this financial year.' 'We have seen this organic plough back of profit is one of best ways to support the equity of the bank.'
The Indian financial system is driven more by the domestic factors and "Fed rate cut is one of the triggers to review rates ", said Union Bank Bank of India chairman M V Nair.
After three consecutive years of infusing huge funds, foreign portfolio investors retreated from the Indian equity markets in a big way in 2022 with the highest-ever yearly net outflow of nearly Rs 1.21 lakh crore. The huge outflow, which surpasses by a big margin the previous record of Rs 53,000 crore net withdrawal in 2008, came amid aggressive rate hikes by central banks globally but 2023 is expected to be better on positivity about overall macroeconomic trends in India, experts said. Apart from global monetary tightening, volatile crude, rising commodity prices along with Russia and Ukraine conflict led to an exodus of foreign money in 2022.
It is 10 years since Bandhan Financial Services became the first microfinance institution (MFI) to receive the universal bank licence. A year later, in 2015, it started operations. Bandhan's entry into banking was seen as a vote of confidence by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) for the country's microfinance sector. Subsequently, the RBI awarded small finance bank licences to nine MFIs.
Reflecting strong momentum in business, commercial banks, including one public sector lender, reported a year-on-year (YoY) growth in advances. This was higher than or around the banking sector trend in the first quarter ended June 2023. Bank of Maharashtra said its loans expanded by 25 per cent YoY to Rs 1.75 trillion. This pace was much higher than the banking system's 15.4 per cent growth till June 16, 2023, according to Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data.
'India is an equity market with a breadth and depth of companies to invest in.'
Index heavyweight RIL surged 3% to end above Rs 1,000 mark while IT majors were also the top gainers.
India may adopt norms similar to the US Federal Reserve model, which regulates conglomerate-led banks in the country.
US employers stepped up hiring in May in a show of economic resilience that suggests the Federal Reserve could begin to scale back the amount of cash it is pumping into the banking system later this year.
Loan against gold as a product is catching on fast. Let's keep the momentum going, but aim for sustainable growth. A few bad apples should not ruin the brunch, argues Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Reserve Bank governor Shaktikanta Das on Friday cautioned banks against any build-up of asset-liability mismatches, saying both are detrimental to financial stability and hinted that the ongoing crisis in the US banking system seems to have emanated from such mismatches. Delivering the annual KP Hormis (Federal Bank founder) commemorative lecture in Kochi this evening, the governor was quick to acknowledge and assure that the domestic financial sector is stable and the worst of inflation is behind us. Amid the continuing volatility in exchange rates, especially due to the excessive appreciation of the US dollar, and its impact on the external debt servicing ability of nations, Das said, "We have nothing to fear as our external debt is manageable and thus appreciation of the greenback does not pose any problem to us."
'While foreign institutional investor flows are still negative, they will turn positive in the latter part of 2023 as India's resilient growth becomes perceptible.'
On one hand, South Indian states have been complaining about denial of a proportionate portion of the sharable funds from the Centre, based on population. On the other hand, they stand to lose Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha seats that again are based on population, points out N Sathiya Moorthy.
The central bank asked lenders to specify potential risks as low, moderate, high and very high
Since the burden of 'reserve' tax has fallen primarily on SMEs as they depend on bank finance, a further hike in its Cash Reserve Ratio will definitely hit the SMEs and small savers.
The recent run on the US-based Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and the subsequent seizure of its assets by the regulators may have sparked a global wave of risk aversion, particularly for start-ups. However, the Indian banking sector is unlikely to be a victim of any contagion effects, said analysts. he bank, which played a big role in financing start-ups and technology players, faced stress after incurring huge losses on its holdings of US bonds, following the most-aggressive monetary tightening cycle by the Federal Reserve in around four decades.
The announcement of the formation of the BRICS bank will have as much an impact about how the non-G7 countries manage their economies and their foreign reserves, as it does on the intellectual discourse. The development priorities and agenda which was hitherto set by western experts responding mostly to western priorities and notions will now have to compete with an intellectual tradition that is and can be very different, says Mohan Guruswamy.
RBI's intention to keep its target inflation rate at 5% was the main reason behind keeping rates unchanged, says Adhil Shetty, CEO of BankBazaar.com.
The list of 22 leaders was compiled in association with Harvard Kennedy School. It also includes Federal Reserve Board Chirman Ben Bernanke, Newark city Mayor Cory Booker, Cisco Systems CEO and Chairman John Chambers and playwright-activist Eve Ensler.
Conventional wisdom is that when the US sneezes, emerging markets like India catch a cold. And yet the Indian stock market went up last year, points out Debashish Basu.
Indian start-ups breathed a sigh of relief after the UK government facilitated the acquisition of the now-defunct Silicon Valley Bank's (SVB's) British arm by HSBC. In a bid to allay fears, the US Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FIDC) announced recently that it had transferred all deposits of start-up-focused SVB to a newly created bridge bank and all depositors would have access to their money. President Joe Biden also sought to reassure jittery depositors that they can have confidence that the US banking system is "safe".
A day after BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) nations agreed on a $100-billion foreign currency reserve pool to tackle the volatile foreign exchange markets, India on Friday said the pool would act as a buffer arrangement, adding it might not withdraw anything from this reserve.
Inside story of how Wall Street and Washington fought to save the financial system and themselves.
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